Hope for Revival of Monsoon Over Gujarat and Rajasthan Is Fading

Key Takeaways:

• Gujarat has an 8% seasonal rainfall surplus, but Saurashtra and Kutch continue to face a significant 29% deficit.
• West Rajasthan has a 22% rainfall deficit and East Rajasthan a 20% deficit, with some western districts facing drought-like conditions.
• No major Arabian Sea system is expected, while the upcoming Bay of Bengal system is unlikely to move far enough west to revive rainfall significantly.
• A limited opportunity for scattered rain may emerge over East Rajasthan and eastern Gujarat during the first week of September.
• Forecast Validity: August 28 – September 3, 2026

The hope for a meaningful revival of monsoon rains over Gujarat and Rajasthan is now fading rapidly. Until the first week of August, many parts of both states received good rainfall activity. Although on-and-off showers continued over parts of Rajasthan thereafter, the intensity and coverage of rainfall gradually declined.

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As of August 27, Gujarat remains in the normal rainfall category, with an 8% surplus for the season. However, Saurashtra and Kutch are facing a 29% rainfall deficit. The situation is more concerning in Rajasthan, where West Rajasthan has a 22% deficit and East Rajasthan a 20% deficit.

In fact, several districts of West Rajasthan are facing a drought-like situation, and farmers are eagerly waiting for a substantial spell of rain to support standing crops. Unfortunately, the atmospheric conditions are currently not favourable for a significant revival.

There is no significant weather system expected to develop over the northeast Arabian Sea in the coming days. Such a system could have provided much-needed rainfall to Gujarat and Rajasthan, but its absence is reducing the chances of any substantial improvement in rainfall activity.

At the same time, a weather system developing over the North Bay of Bengal is expected to move in a northwesterly direction. However, it is likely to travel only up to northeast Madhya Pradesh and southeast Uttar Pradesh. The prevailing westerly winds are expected to restrict its further westward movement towards Rajasthan, Gujarat and northwest India.

This is one of the main reasons why a significant revival of monsoon rains over Gujarat and Rajasthan is unlikely at present.

There will still be some isolated rainfall over Gujarat. Southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea continue to blow across the state, carrying moisture into the region. As a result, isolated light rain can occur over parts of Gujarat during the coming days. However, these scattered showers are unlikely to be widespread or intense enough to provide meaningful relief to farmers or adequately sustain rain-dependent crops.

There is, however, a small window of hope during the first week of September. An old weather system may move across western parts of Madhya Pradesh and could generate scattered rainfall over some parts of East Rajasthan and eastern Gujarat. The rainfall, if it occurs, is expected to remain limited in coverage and intensity.

Overall, monsoon activity over Gujarat and Rajasthan is likely to remain subdued. With no significant system developing over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal system unlikely to travel far enough west, the prospects of a widespread revival of rainfall are diminishing rapidly.

For farmers in West Rajasthan and the rainfall-deficient areas of Saurashtra and Kutch, the coming days will therefore remain crucial, as the region continues to wait for a substantial monsoon spell.

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