Southwest Monsoon 2025 Reaches Half Way Mark: Pan-India Above Normal Rainfall
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India received ‘above normal’ rainfall during the first half of the monsoon season (Jun-Jul). Earlier, the month of June recorded rainfall of 109% of the Long Period Average (LPA), and now July has finished with a monthly total of 105% of LPA. Put together, the first half of the season registered a surplus of 6% rainfall. However, all the four homogeneous regions have performed differently, and the rainfall distribution remained incoherent. Central India recorded the highest, around 23% more than normal rainfall, seconded by Northwest India at 21% above normal rainfall. Major surplus was contributed by Rajasthan in Northwest India and by Madhya Pradesh in the Central Region.
East and Northeast India remained a grey area and suffered a setback of 22% deficiency. Bihar alone had a huge deficit of 39% rainfall, halfway through the season. An alarming shortfall of over 40% rainfall was witnessed in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. The state of Meghalaya, ‘abode of clouds,’ witnessed drought-like conditions with a large deficit of 56% rainfall. South Peninsula, which had a marginal shortfall of 3% rainfall in June, repeated the ill feat with borderline arrears of 2% rainfall for the season, halfway through.
More often than not, the first half of the monsoon has remained dubious and complex, too. Individually, June and July getting aligned is rare to witness. Invariably, each of these months thrives at the cost of the other during monsoon. The last time these two months resonated together was way back in 2013. June was surplus with 34%, and July also was above normal at 107% of LPA. This rare coincidence has taken 12 years to accomplish the same deed. June and July 2025 have both recorded above normal rainfall of 109% and 105% of LPA, respectively. Combined together, the season at the halfway mark is 106% of LPA.
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August is the second rainiest month of the season, with an average of 254.9mm rainfall. August and September together contribute about 48% of seasonal rainfall. The month of August is likely to start sub-par, on account of ‘break-monsoon’ conditions commencing anytime soon. It may not be typical like a ‘break,’ when the entire monsoon trough shifts along the foothills of the Himalayas, yet the rainfall activity will reduce over most parts of the country. The duration of the ‘break’ cannot be predicted at this point in time. However, once the break starts, the revival will necessitate the formation of a fresh system over the Bay of Bengal. The month of August could have a jerky start and may recover only during the second half of the month.
