Low Pressure Area Likely Over Bay: Active Monsoon Over Eastern Parts

Key Takeaways:

• The low-pressure area over Northeast Madhya Pradesh has weakened and is likely to merge with the seasonal monsoon trough.
• A fresh cyclonic circulation over the Northwest Bay of Bengal may become more marked and induce another low-pressure area.
• Fairly widespread rain and thundershowers will begin over North Odisha, North Chhattisgarh, South Bihar and Jharkhand from August 23.
• Bundi, Kota, Baran, Jhalawar, Bhilwara, Tonk and Sawai Madhopur may face an increased risk of intense rainfall around August 24-25.
• Forecast Validity: Till August 25

The low-pressure area over Northeast Madhya Pradesh has weakened further. The cyclonic circulation is extending up to about 20,000 feet in height. The system will get filled up over the same area and is likely to get merged with the seasonal monsoon trough passing across that region.

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In the past 24 hours, there were fairly widespread moderate showers over the Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh and adjoining South Uttar Pradesh. Tikamgarh, Gwalior, Guna, Satna, Nowgong, Rajgarh, Jhansi, Lalitpur and Banda received moderate rain and thundershowers in the last 24 hours. The same region will have a repeat of this activity, maybe a little less intense, for the next 36 hours.

Close on the heels of this system, another cyclonic circulation has formed over the Northwest Bay of Bengal and coastal parts of Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh. This is likely to become more marked and, under its influence, another low-pressure area may come up over that region. Active monsoon conditions will resume yet again over the eastern states. The peripheral effect will travel deep into the central parts and Indo-Gangetic plains as well.

The convergence zones of these low-pressure areas are the weather activity centres. These converging airmass pockets lead the movement and always lie miles ahead of the centre of the system. The weather activity will predominantly start on 23rd Aug 2026. It will begin with fairly widespread rain and thundershowers over North Odisha, North Chhattisgarh, South Bihar and Jharkhand.

The spread of activity will extend to Madhya Pradesh and also reach the peripherals of East Rajasthan on 24th & 25th Aug. The area over Rajasthan will be complemented by the wind stream from the Arabian Sea, and the two airmasses together may bring a deluge over some districts. The risk factor will grow for Bundi, Kota, Baran, Jhalawar, Bhilwara, Tonk and Sawai Madhopur districts. The weather activity will start receding from these parts and West Madhya Pradesh as well from 26th Aug 2026 onwards.

The intense weather activity will keep shifting eastward on 26th Aug and later. During the fag end of August, this will get squeezed to East Bihar, East Jharkhand, North Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the northeastern states.

After 24th Aug, the weather activity will go missing largely from the plains of North India, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and the entire South Peninsula, outside Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. The month of August may as well end on a depressing note for many parts of the country.

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