Image Courtesy: CIMSS
Under the influence of a persistent cyclonic circulation, a low-pressure area has formed over the East-Central Bay of Bengal, next to the coastline of Myanmar. The cyclonic circulation is extending up to higher levels, and the system is likely to become well-marked over the next 24 hours. It is also expected to move northwestward, staying close to the Myanmar–Bangladesh coast while maintaining a safe distance from the shorelines of West Bengal and Odisha.
The cyclonic circulation is likely to meander over the sea itself and maintain a holding pattern for the next three days. Weather activity will remain mostly confined to Myanmar and Bangladesh, though partial effects will be felt over Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Scattered rain and thundershowers are expected over these northeastern states during the next 2–3 days.
The cyclonic circulation seems to be getting pushed southward over the open waters of the Central and East-Central Bay of Bengal. Meanwhile, another weather system is expected to track across Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand from the South China Sea. Currently, Typhoon Kalmaegi is moving across the Philippines, ravaging its central parts, and is likely to head west-northwest. The typhoon will strengthen into a Category-3 equivalent hurricane with winds of about 200 km/h before striking Vietnam around late night on 6th November 2025. This system will weaken after entering the mainland and traveling across East Asian countries. As a low-pressure area, it is likely to enter the Bay of Bengal on 8th November and merge with the pre-existing cyclonic circulation lingering over the central Bay of Bengal. As the models have limited lead time for reliable prediction, further updates will follow after 2–3 days.
As of now, it is evident that the amalgamated system will not affect weather conditions over eastern states like Odisha, West Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand. As part of the northeast monsoon, the southern states are expected to witness a fresh round of seasonal activity in the second week of November.
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