Break Monsoon Conditions To End Soon: Monsoon Revival Imminent
Typical ‘break-monsoon’ conditions are prevailing over the country. There is a pause in rainfall activity over many parts and more so over Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, parts of Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra. There was rampant weather activity in the mountains and along the foothills of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
As it usually happens during a ‘break,’ a cyclonic circulation persisted off the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts. Substantial monsoon rains lashed the south, covering Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana.
The satellite imagery has a true manifestation of the ‘break-monsoon.’ The cloud clusters mostly congregate in the mountains and along the foothills in North India. The South Peninsula gets a decent spread of rains on account of the formation of the ‘Koteswaram Low’ in the southwest Bay of Bengal and the north-south trough over the interior peninsula. The conditions get reversed on the formation of a low-pressure area over the north and northwest Bay of Bengal.
Courtesy of the break-monsoon, all the ten days of August so far have recorded sub-par rainfall. Between 1st and 10th August 2025, the month has recorded a total of 64.7 mm of rainfall against the normal of 89.8 mm. There is a steady shortfall of nearly 30% rainfall during the first third of the month. Even the seasonal rainfall for the country has dropped from an earlier excess of 15% to nearly zero-zero as of today. A revival of the monsoon is likely during this week.
A low-pressure area is likely to form over the northwest Bay of Bengal on 13th August 2025. As a precursor to that, a cyclonic circulation will form over the same area on 12th August. This will consolidate and turn into a low-pressure area in the next 24 hours. The weather system will mostly stay over the sea and get further organized in the subsequent 48–72 hours. While the system remains over the sea, the weather activity will start covering the states of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and the peripherals of Madhya Pradesh. The low-pressure area may become a depression during this period and cross the coast anytime around 16th August. The depression will track along Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and later sweep most parts of Gujarat, South Rajasthan, and Konkan & Goa. Vigorous monsoon conditions are likely over different parts of the country between 12th and 20th August 2025.
