Heavy Rains Unlikely In Mumbai: Moderate Spells Till Mid-July
July is the rainiest month for Mumbai, with an average rainfall of 840.7 mm. Past records indicate that Mumbai invariably exceeds its monthly rainfall by a big margin. For six consecutive years, the city has surpassed the 1000 mm mark in July. The years 2023 and 2024 ranked among the rainiest Julys, with the city recording massive rainfall in excess of 1700 mm, surpassing the previous all-time record of 1468.5 mm set in July 2014.
During these years, the coastal city witnessed deluges of 200 mm rainfall in 24 hours on a couple of occasions. Rains have been milder this season so far. The airport observatory has recorded a total of 149 mm of rainfall in the first week of July 2025. The Colaba observatory has measured just 92 mm during this period.
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Mumbai receives heavy rainfall when strong monsoon westerly streams from the Arabian Sea strike the Konkan Coast head-on. An active offshore north-south trough also contributes to heavy rainfall over the city and its suburbs. Another heavy rainfall situation arises when remnants of a low-pressure area from the Bay of Bengal move over West Madhya Pradesh, South Rajasthan, and North Madhya Maharashtra. The first two scenarios are unlikely over the next week. The last scenario—a cyclonic circulation, albeit a weakened one—may move over Central and West Madhya Pradesh during this week, bringing moderate showers.
A low-pressure area is currently lying over Gangetic West Bengal and the Jharkhand region, supported by cyclonic circulation. This weather system will move slowly westward over the next 3–4 days. The low pressure will weaken over central parts of Madhya Pradesh but will continue to maintain a circulation extending up to mid-tropospheric levels. The presence of this feature will strengthen the westerly winds along the Konkan region. However, it will still fall short of the strength required to trigger any massive three-digit rainfall in 24 hours. Moderate-intensity showers may lash the city and suburbs between 9th and 11th July 2025, but the rainfall is unlikely to exceed 50 mm in 24 hours on any of these days. Given this scenario, Mumbai is unlikely to reach half of its monthly rainfall target by mid-July. La Nina: ENSO Linkages With Global Temperatures
