No Big Showers Likely In Mumbai: Later Half Of July Likely To Be Soaky
Mumbai rains have mostly remained subdued over the last one week or so. The airport observatory at Santacruz, the marker for Mumbai, recorded just 50 mm of rainfall in the last seven days. By Mumbai’s monsoon standards, this is minuscule. The city may remain relatively quiet for another week before catching up in the latter half of July.
Mumbai did manage to register normal rainfall in June. Santacruz measured a total of 511.7 mm of rainfall against the monthly normal of 493.1 mm. However, Santacruz did not record any deluge during the month. The other observatory at Colaba did receive three-digit rainfall in 24 hours on two days. July is the rainiest month for the city, with average rainfall of 840.7 mm. There have been more than one occasion when the city breached the 1000 mm mark, like in July 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2014. July 2014 holds an all-time record of 1468.5 mm of monthly rainfall.
Mumbai receives heavy rainfall under typical synoptic situations. The monsoon westerlies strengthen along the Konkan Coast during the formation of monsoon systems over the Bay of Bengal. A typical Mumbai heavy downpour takes place when the well-marked circulation of these systems reaches Southwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat. Occasionally, an offshore vortex coupled with a trough along the Konkan region also triggers heavy rains.
The low-pressure area over the Northwest Bay of Bengal has now moved over the West Bengal and Jharkhand region. The cyclonic circulation is extending up to higher levels. However, this feature will move along parts of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and the border areas of Uttar Pradesh. This circulation may not get positioned over the desired parts of Madhya Pradesh for heavy rainfall over Mumbai. Also, the low pressure will weaken as it approaches West Madhya Pradesh and Southwest Uttar Pradesh after three days. Yet, the system will accentuate rainfall activity over and around Mumbai, albeit temporarily.
Mumbai will continue to receive light rainfall of 10–15 mm in 24 hours for the next three days. Monsoon showers will increase in intensity to moderate, with good spread as well, all along the Konkan region between 05th and 07th July. The sharp showers may not be hefty enough to cause localized flooding or disrupt transportation. Yet, they will be strong enough to break the jinx of unusually feeble and quiet monsoon conditions in this otherwise soppy city. The intensity of these showers may again subside the next day, on 08th July 2025.
