Second Summer Follows Monsoon Withdrawal Over Gujarat And Rajasthan
Key Takeaways:
- Dry and hot westerly winds are strengthening over Rajasthan and Gujarat following the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon.
- Churu, Pilani and Ganganagar have already recorded temperatures close to 40°C.
- Temperatures may reach around 40°C over the next week, particularly across North Gujarat, Saurashtra & Kutch.
- The October “second summer” is likely to persist until the third week of the month before temperatures gradually decline.
- Forecast Validity: Next 7 days
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The Southwest Monsoon has completely withdrawn from the northern, western and most central parts of the country. The states of Rajasthan and Gujarat have a large stretch of arid landmass to the west. The monsoon, as such, does not reach effectively over those parts. Extreme western parts of Pakistan and adjoining Iran have temperatures reaching 42°-43°C. Even the central parts of Pakistan have mercury rising to 40°C and above.
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The wind pattern has already reversed and is dominated by dry and hot westerlies. Absence of clouds and rains, following the retreat of the monsoon, leads to an appreciable rise in temperatures over these two states in the month of October. Advection of heat with the dry westerly winds ushers in the second summer, wherein dry and hot conditions prevail till the third week of October. Gradual decline of the mercury thereafter brings a light wintry flavour by about 10th November.
The Tropic of Cancer passing through these states is accompanied by excess heat on either side of this imaginary line. The Tropic of Cancer, along 23.5°N, as such passes through eight Indian states: Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Tripura and Mizoram. The line has the shortest length in Rajasthan and the longest stretch over Madhya Pradesh.
The locations in the immediate proximity of this line, both north and south, become excessively warm after the withdrawal of the monsoon. The eastern half takes a little longer to heat up, as the monsoon currents continue to sweep till past mid-October.
The day temperatures have already started rising over Gujarat and Rajasthan. While Churu, Pilani and Ganganagar have reached close to 40°C, the other border posts like Jaisalmer, Barmer, Phalodi and Bikaner have recorded maximum temperatures of 38°-39°C.
Interiors of Gujarat are also catching up with the heat, and the mercury has breached the 37°C mark at Rajkot, Surendranagar and Ahmedabad. These are likely to increase and may reach 40°C over the next one week, more so over North Gujarat and Saurashtra & Kutch. Caution needs to be exercised for dry and hot conditions over most parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan during the month of October.
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