Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal To Start Soon: Timely Retreat From North India Likely

Key Takeaways:

• Conditions are becoming favourable for the Southwest Monsoon withdrawal process to commence from West Rajasthan.
• The scheduled withdrawal date from the border posts of Rajasthan is 17th September, though the process is determined retrospectively after the required conditions persist.
• Monsoon withdrawal does not necessarily mean a complete cessation of rainfall, and sporadic rain can occur even after withdrawal.
• A potential cyclonic storm over the Bay of Bengal next week may have implications for further monsoon withdrawal from central and eastern India.
• Forecast Validity: Next one week.

Conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal process to commence soon. As usual, the beginning is made from West Rajasthan, and the retreat is invariably faster from the northern parts. Also, the retreat of the monsoon is always retrospective, and the required conditions need to sustain for a few days before the announcement. The withdrawal of the monsoon from a region need not be construed as a complete cessation of rainfall thereafter, and sporadic rains remain a possibility.

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The retreat of the monsoon has never been a steady process, and the line of withdrawal moves with a mix of leaps and pauses. The withdrawal process from the entire country officially happens only after 01st October but typically gets concluded around mid-October. The retreat of the Southwest Monsoon essentially needs to be completed before the onset of the Northeast Monsoon. The two streams, having different sources and characteristics, cannot coexist over the country.

The broad criteria for the start of withdrawal remain: cessation of rainfall, a drop in humidity levels, an increase in temperature, reversal of the wind pattern, and mostly clear skies for visible manifestation.

The scheduled date for the start of withdrawal is 17th September from the border posts of Rajasthan. Last year, the process began a little early on 14th September and was completed on 16th October 2025. There was a simultaneous onset of the Northeast Monsoon on that date over the South Peninsula. It is worth mentioning that the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon and the onset of the Northeast Monsoon have no correlation with El Niño conditions over the country.

The process of withdrawal from West Rajasthan was delayed this season because of the low-pressure area over Gujarat and Rajasthan. The weather system has just cleared the geographical bounds of the country.

There is a likelihood of a cyclonic storm developing over the Bay of Bengal next week. This will have implications for further withdrawal from the central and eastern parts of the country. The system needs to be watched for the continuation of the withdrawal process.

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