November Second Week Draws Poor Northeast Monsoon Activity: Season Surplus Gets Consumed
Image: Skymetweather.com
Courtesy of the extended Southwest Monsoon over the central and eastern parts of the country, the monthly pan-India rainfall in October was well above normal. Even the two cyclones, Shakhti and Montha, during the month enhanced rainfall activity over many parts of the country, albeit in a staggered manner. All four homogeneous regions recorded above-normal rainfall, with Northwest India registering a deluge, an excess of 161% rainfall. The Northeast Monsoon activity over the Southern Peninsula was also far above normal and collected a surplus of 40% rainfall.
After both the storms cleared the Indian Peninsula, the rains subsided over the southern parts. The second week of November, between 06 and 12 November 2025, witnessed a huge deficit of 78% rainfall over the country. All four homogeneous pockets, which performed rather well in October, slumped to the lowest possible margins in November. The South Peninsula as a whole plunged to a massive deficit of 71% rainfall. All ten sub-divisions, including the oceanic territories of Lakshadweep and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, suffered drought-like conditions. Tamil Nadu, the rainiest state during November, recorded a shortfall of 67% during this week. Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, and Telangana registered shortfalls in excess of 70% across the board.
The regional surplus of 40% rainfall over the South Peninsula during October is now down to just 14%. This means that the large surplus has been consumed substantially, and that too in the otherwise rainiest month of the Northeast Monsoon. This may leave some anxious moments for the state of Tamil Nadu, which records 35% of its annual rainfall predominantly in the months of October and November.
There is a likelihood of weather systems developing over the Bay of Bengal in the next ten days. This may include the formation of a low-pressure area around 20 November 2025. The South Peninsula will receive light to moderate rainfall over most sub-divisions during this period. Tamil Nadu will have a decent share, especially the coastal parts. The capital city, Chennai, is expected to receive moderate to heavy rains between 16 and 18 November 2025.
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