After witnessing below normal Monsoon rains to the tune of 95% last year, India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) for the four-month period from June to September.
(0)Skymet further forecasts 55% chance of normal rainfall that is between 95% to 105% of LPA of 887 mm for the Monsoon season.
There is only 20% chance of above normal Monsoon rains, 20% chance of below normal rains and 0% chances of drought.
The four-month long Monsoon season gives about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. The key crop season ‘Kharif’ is primarily dependent on these rains.
(10)Looking at the month wise rainfall distribution, June would record 111% rains of the long period average. The onset month is likely to receive 182 mm of rains against the average of 164 mm.
Thereafter, gradual warming of Pacific Ocean would result in devolving La Nina conditions that would slightly impact the performance of Monsoon in the following months.