After witnessing below normal Monsoon rains to the tune of 95% last year, India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) for the four-month period from June to September.
(0)Skymet further forecasts 55% chance of normal rainfall that is between 95% to 105% of LPA of 887 mm for the Monsoon season.
There is only 20% chance of above normal Monsoon rains, 20% chance of below normal rains and 0% chances of drought.
The four-month long Monsoon season gives about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. The key crop season ‘Kharif’ is primarily dependent on these rains.
(10)Looking at the month wise rainfall distribution, June would record 111% rains of the long period average. The onset month is likely to receive 182 mm of rains against the average of 164 mm.
Thereafter, gradual warming of Pacific Ocean would result in devolving La Nina conditions that would slightly impact the performance of Monsoon in the following months.
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July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall to the tune of 97% and 96% of LPA, respectively. Particularly, August might end up slightly below normal rains. July would record 280 mm of rain, while August would receive 250 mm.
Withdrawal month of September would see increase in rains again to 101% of LPA and record normal rains of 175 mm against the normal of 173 mm.
Let us now have a look at the region-wise performance of Monsoon across the four-month long period.
(20)(JJAS)Overall, the country would see normal rains except Southern Peninsula, along with major portion of Northeast India are likely to witness below normal rains this season.
Meanwhile as you can see, parts of East India, especially Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal would receive good Monsoon rains. Northwest India is also likely to see normal rains this year.
(30)Beginning with June, the onset month of Monsoon would give normal to above normal rains over the country, but parts of northeastern states and Tamil Nadu are likely to see less rains.
(40)In July, normal Monsoon rains would be confined only to East, Central and Northwest India, while Peninsular and Northeast India are likely to be rain deficit.
(50)August would be no different. In fact, Gujarat would too join the list of deficit areas along with South and Northeast India.
(60)Picking up pace in September, Monsoon is likely to retreat from the country with normal rains, especially over Central and East India. However once again, parts of Kerala, Karnataka and Arunachal Pradesh would see deficient rains.
While marginal rain deficiency may not affect Northeast India, but deficit rains in Peninsular India can be the cause of worry for drought-stricken farmers and policy makers.
Not only this, Monsoon will also bring cheers for Indian agriculture. Above normal rains in June would ensure timely and higher sowing across the country. Although rains would witness a drop in July and August that would not be of much concern for farmers. September would again see rains reviving, which would further aide crop production.
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
