Skymet weather

A look back at the below normal Monsoon 2017

April 5, 2018 9:49 AM |

Northeast Monsoon to make delayed onset over South IndiaMonsoon 2017 was below normal for India with the countrywide rainfall standing at 95 percent of the long period average (LPA), which was accurately forecast by Skymet Weather.


The onset of Southwest Monsoon was slightly before time, arriving over Kerala on May 30. However, there was a delay in the onset of Monsoon over central and eastern parts of the country, inclusive of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh. Meanwhile, Monsoon had covered the entire country by July 19.

The Monsoon season in the year 2017 was one of the trickiest wherein the truant behavior of the Monsoon pattern was seen. The Southwest Monsoon is largely controlled by oceans, particularly two of the largest, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

The Pacific Ocean has the Nino indices while the Indian Ocean pertains to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Nino indices last year played a see-saw, staying within the range of 1 but varying largely within these limits, changing signs.

The year began with the Nino index being negative. It further became positive during March and April, thereafter remaining the same during the first half of the Monsoon season. However, it once again became negative during the second half of the Southwest Monsoon season.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the other hand remained positive throughout the Monsoon season.

There was a large difference in the predictions made by various agencies right from Monsoon being above normal to normal. However, Skymet stuck to its forecast of Monsoon being below normal at 95 percent and rightly so.

As far as the rainfall performance is concerned, the first half of Monsoon saw good rains. Thus, June saw the countrywide cumulative rains to the tune of 105 percent, while July saw a 100 percent rainfall.

On the other hand, both August and September were rain deficient by 12 percent each. The deficient pockets in terms of rains, throughout the Monsoon season, were the states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Vidarbha.

Meanwhile, excess Monsoon rains were recorded by the states of Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, West Rajasthan and NMMT (Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura).  How Monsoon will turn out to be in the year 2018 and what the behaviour of the oceanic patterns is expected to be, will be an interesting thing to see.


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