The southwest monsoon is likely to become active over most areas and vigorous in a few pockets of Rajasthan, commencing tomorrow. East Rajasthan will take the lead where the weather activity is expected to start tomorrow . West Rajasthan will follow with intense thunderstorm at many places from 07thJuly. Fairly long spell, possibly spilling over to the next week is likely. Severe thunderstorm with lightening and strong winds over a wide area may have concern for the recent crops.
State of Rajasthan was earlier roughed up by cyclone Biparjoy. Early arrival of monsoon over the state lashed another spell of moderate to heavy rains. Both the sub-divisions of state, West and East, are running with huge surplus, more so for West Rajasthan. The upcoming spell may soak few parts yet again, already saturated with the earlier assault.
A cyclonic circulation is likely to move over the state, across the border, covering north and central region. Monsoon trough as such passes through the northern half of the state with north-south oscillation. Later, at the fag end of this week, remnant of a monsoon system from the Bay of Bengal will also reach over the state, reinforcing and accentuating the monsoon activity. Most parts of the state will be impacted with active to vigorous monsoon, not necessarily simultaneous over all pockets.
The weather activity may begin tomorrow itself, reaching southeast and central parts of east Rajasthan. The vulnerable locations will include Banswara, Dungarpur, Baran, Pratapgarh, Jhalawar, Udaipur and Kota. Either the same day or the next one, it will strike places like Bhilwara, Tonk, Bundi, Sawai Madhopur, Dausa, Ajmer and Jaipur. From 8thJuly onward, almost all parts, with only few exceptions , will be at risk of heavy thunderstorm, strong winds and massive showers. Such weather activity will reach parts of West Rajasthan , rather deep inside, covering Nagaur, Jodhpur, Jalore, Pali and Bikaner on 08th and 09th July. Even North Rajasthan will experience unpleasant weather activity from agriculture aspects covering Ganganagar, Suratgarh, Anupgarh and Hanumangarh First half of next week also bear the risk of getting lashed by intense and fairly wide spread activity.
It has not rained adequately over most parts of the state for the last 2 days. Some pockets of West Rajasthan remained nearly dry. Still, as on 04th July, the western parts have a large excess of 220% and the eastern half have a surplus of 91%. The upcoming spell will add further to the massive overflow of monsoon rains.
