Bout Of Rain And Snow For Northern Mountains, Expect Long Spell

All four mountain states of North India are likely to receive rain and thundershower activity, commencing on the weekend and stretching till mid-week next. Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh will have a bigger spread than the other two, Ladakh and Uttrakhand.  Higher reaches of these states will witness snowfall of varying intensity.  Post monsoon withdrawal, this will be the second spell but much bigger than the previous one which was just short and sweet. A relatively longer spell will set the stage for ushering of wintry conditions across the mountains of North India.

Previous western disturbance has cleared the region. Hills and plains, both experienced moderate weather activity. In the wake of this system, minimum temperatures have dropped to under 20°C at many places. This has brought back a slight nip in the air, earlier observed after the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. However, mercury levels are likely to change again and this time for a longer duration.

Fresh western disturbance is likely to arrive on the 13^th night and make its presence felt, more visibly from 14^thOctober onward. This bout of rain for the lower hills and possible snowfall in the higher reaches will last between 14^th and 17th of October. Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh will have a bigger share than the rest of it.  In that too, the spread and intensity will be more on 15^th and 16th October.  The activity will start easing out from 18^thOctober, but only for a short breather. Weather conditions may clamp down again for the subsequent 48hrs on 19^th and 20^thOctober, albeit not as heavy as the previous spell.

The accumulated effect of these brief incursions aligns with the weather pattern for the upcoming winter season. The month of October remains mild and the build-up starts only in November and that too for the elevated areas over and above 12,000 feet. Winters for the lower hills, foothills and plains of northern parts may show up a little earlier than normal, this season. The entire region can expect better than average winter rainfall. Piercing wintry conditions may stay on hold and get suppressed frequently on account of the regular passage of Western disturbances.