Skymet weather

Cyclone Formation Over Bay Of Bengal Lingers, Model Divergence Bit Large

November 29, 2023 1:15 PM |

Tropical storm is likely to form over Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the next few days.  Earlier, emergence of low pressure area over South Andaman Sea  was  decelerated. Further development  also likely to be retarded  and slow.  However, despite these hitches, cyclone formation is assured, sooner than later, over southeast and adjoining southwest BoB.

Low pressure area formed over South Andaman Sea and northern parts of Malay Peninsula, yesterday.  First obstacle has been crossed and system has become well marked low pressure area.  Further intensification to a depression may be sometime late tomorrow.  Subsequent strengthening to a tropical storm may while away more time. There is large divergence amongst the numerical models towards timelines, intensity and track.

The invest area pertaining to the upcoming storm is currently centered around 5.1°N and 91.6°E, over the Andaman Sea in the close proximity of equatorial region. Possibly, the low latitude is responsible for slowing down the process. The low pressure is expected to move west-northwestward, albeit slowly, and gain latitude. It is essential for these systems to reach close to 8°-10°N, to introduce dynamic forcing to sustain growth and development.

Currently, this is the lone weather system in the whole theater, around the globe striving to rev up.  There is a steady increase in consolidation of low level moist flow.  Environmental conditions are favourable with low vertical wind shear (about 10Kts), warm sea surface temperature (28°-29°C) and good outflow in the higher levels. Potential for development in to a cyclone within next 48hours is low.  Speedy accentuation is likely after 01stDecember when the vortex goes beyond 10°N. Significant increase in the Coriolis Force and rising heat potential promise tropical storm over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, on 02nd December.  Further track of the storm continue to remain a puzzle, as of now. There is large variation with respect to the path and the coastline from Tamil Nadu to Andhra Pradesh/ Odisha and further on to Bangladesh remain open for strike or skirt.

The upcoming storm need close observation for another 24-36 hours for any precision forecast.  The recurving storms, along the Indian coastline have a tendency to get drained out due to increased frictional levels.  Sufficient distance from the landmass will be requisite to gain force and severity.  As and when it forms, the storm will be named  ‘Michaung’, as proposed by Myanmar and will be pronounced as ‘Migjaum’.

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