True to its repute, likely cyclone over Bay of Bengal (BoB), has been changing timelines. Earlier, a low pressure area, precursor to the upcoming cyclone, expected to form around the weekend has undergone schedule update. Apparently, it is changing timelines and track as well and therefore its likely path is nothing short of a wilder guess, at this point. However, environmental conditions are still ensuring formation of a cyclone during later half of this week.
A cyclonic circulation, preamble to the main system, is marked over South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood, up to the medium levels of the atmosphere. Sea surface is warm enough to raise the heat potential in the region and upgrade this feature to a low pressure area in the next 24hours. Further intensification is quite likely to a depression, somewhere over lower end of southeast BoB, in the subsequent 24-36 hours. More than 80% of such depressions over these areas, strengthen further to become a tropical storm, at this time of the season.
The expected cyclone will be 4thone of this year over Bay of Bengal. Also, the cyclone will be named ‘ Michaung’ and pronounced as ‘ Migjaum’. The tracks of such cyclones remain most uncertain, to start with. The path of storm is largely controlled by the steering current and the position of sub-tropical ridge. Any westerly trough, deep in amplitude, over the northern parts can further influence the recurvature, preventing a landfall along Indian coastline. Much of the clarity comes, once the system gets organized and manifested as depression, in the satellite imageries and wind field.
Notwithstanding the future coarse, the entire coastline from TamilNadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal to Bangladesh& Myanmar remain at risk of striking storm. Storms emerging at this time of the season are known for taking a recurved track, bracing Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast. Bangladesh remains equally vulnerable to landfall of such weather systems.