Cyclone 'Mandous' has moved west-northwest slowly with a speed of under 10kmh in the past 6hours. It is centred around 9.6deg N and 84deg E at 0830hr this morning. It is about 550km southeast of Chennai. Storm is packed with wind speed of 75kmh and gusting to 85kmh.
Mandous is likely to move more to the northwest, gaining latitude and expected to reach about 480km southeast of Chennai by about 1730hr in the evening.
The storm continues to remain under favourable environmental conditions, with moderate wind shear and warm sea surface. Wind field is likely to sharpen further and may touch 100kmh in gusts over the open sea. Satellite imagery manifest a circular dense overcast cloud mass, wrapped around with curved bands, indicative of its force.
Cyclone Mandous is likely to undergo double degradation, commencing anytime late tonight. Strom will be inflicted by double whammy of temperature and wind. As the storm comes closer to the coast, entrainment resulting seeping in of dry air from South Peninsula will restrict the moisture content. Also, 1-2deg dip in the sea surface temperature will reduce the heat potential. Vertical wind shear will be on the rise as it nears Puducherry-Chennai coastline. Wind field of the storm is expected to drop to 70-75kmh by tomorrow morning when the storm is abeam Cuddalore, less than 200km from the coast.
Mandous happens to be 7th cyclone in as many years, in the month of December in the Indian Seas and 3rd successive storm in the Bay of Bengal, after Burevi in 2020 and Jowad last year. All the December storms over Bay of Bengal have history of weakening before making landfall. Few of these, diffused over the open waters, itself. The only exception in the recent past was cyclone Vardah, a very severe cyclonic storm, making landfall close to Chennai on 12th Dec 2016. Vardah had crossed over to the Arabian Sea as a weak system and intensified again to become deep depression.
Cyclone Mandous is expected to follow 'Vardah' track and strike coast between Puducherry and Chennai, as a weakened storm. Landfall is likely late night tomorrow and undergo rapid withering, thereafter. Moving across interior Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and North Kerala on 10th December, storm will weaken substantially and enter Arabian Sea , closer to North Coastal Karnataka, on 11th December.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall, accompanied with strong squally winds are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh commencing tonight. Puducherry, Chennai, Karaikal , Cuddalore and Nagapattinam will bear a bigger risk of flooding rains and inundation. All 5 sub divisions of northeast monsoon in South Peninsula will witness vigorous to active weather conditions between 08th and 10th December.
