Southwest Monsoon will reach national capital very soon. Eagerly awaited annual event is likely to set foot on NCR on 30thJune, about 3 days later than the scheduled arrival. Variation of 3-4days falls within the standard deviation and is therefore considered a ‘normal’ onset. Delhi desperately needs monsoon showers as the extended dry and hot pre monsoon spell has left the entire state nearly parched. The union territory bounded by Haryana and Uttar Pradesh has witnessed large deficit of 72% rainfall in June. Except east and northeast Delhi, all other seven districts have deficit/ large deficit rainfall so far in June.
Monsoon arrival is preceded by perceptible changes in the weather conditions. Reeling conditions on account of excess heat and high humidity raise the discomfort level. These conditions have battered ‘delhiites’ for the last one week or even more. Mercury has soared to 40°C or high across the region and even exceeded 43°C-44°C in some pockets like Jafarpur, Mungeshpur and Najafgarh.
Monsoon arrival has lot of variability for the national capital. Last year, monsoon advancement got stalled over Uttar Pradesh for nearly one month from 12thJune to 11thJuly. Against the prediction of earlier than normal arrival, the monsoon could reach only on 13thJuly. Monsoon has an unbeaten record of latest arrival on 27thJuly in 1987. On the other hand, the stream made early entry on 10thJune in 1961. Also, on few other occasions like in 1988, 2008 and 2013, the monsoon arrived earlier than 15thJune. In the last 60years, the monsoon arrived before or on time in 29 years and has a record of reaching later than schedule on 31 occasions.
Southwest monsoon has already advanced further to cover more parts of Uttar Pradesh and also knocked at the outers of Uttarakhand. National capital comes within ‘easy reach’ now. Rain and thundershowers are likely over National Capital Territory, commencing late tonight and extending tomorrow and day after. The main weather system as a cyclonic circulation will give heavy rains over Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh for the next 3-4 days. The rainfall belt will gradually shift westward towards East Rajasthan and Northwest Madhya Pradesh. Delhi will fall on the fringes of main weather system. It is not likely to experience the intense fury . However, moderate showers accompanied with lightning, thunderstorm and gusty winds will be quite likely during this period.