Capital city, Delhi and NCR is unlikely to rain in the month of February. The last rain was recorded on 29th Jan2023 and remained completely dry thereafter. Weather activity is mainly confined to the hills and the plains have largely gone scot-free over North India. Absence of rains in the plains and frequent passage of western disturbances across the mountains will play see-sawing of temperatures. It is likely to stabilize in the month of March.
During last one week, mercury has steeply fallen and risen under the influence of western disturbances. Change in the wind pattern along with speed of surface winds is driving this change. The day temperature had earlier climbed to 29.7deg on10th Feb, about 6 deg above the normal. Minimum temperature had also risen to 14 degrees on 11th Feb, about 4 deg above normal. Both maximum and minimum have plunged by 4-5 degrees overnight to record 23.8deg and 8.7deg respectively.
Passage of western disturbance will influence the temperatures for 2 more days. Below normal temperatures, both, maximum and minimum are likely today and tomorrow. A fresh western disturbance will arrive on 15th morning and stay put till 17th over the mountain states. An overlapping weather disturbance is expected from 18th Feb onward and lasting till 21st Feb. This one will be stronger than the previous and will also have induced circulation over North Punjab and border areas.
Rise in the day and night temperature is likely over the next few days. Minimum temperature will mostly stay in double digit from 14th onward and the maximum temperature may touch 30 deg for the first time in the season on 18th Feb and later. Few clouds are likely between 16th and 20th Feb. Pleasantly cool morning and comfortably warm afternoon is likely for Delhi/NCR for the next 10days. Winter rains are unlikely for the entire month for the capital city.