Well marked low pressure area over Bay of Bengal (BoB) has strengthened to a depression over West-Central BoB. Depression is located about 500km away from the coast, east abeam Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh. The weather system is likely to intensify further in to a deep depression in less than 24hr from now. Depression will move northwestward to reach closer to the coastline. However, the deep depression will move more on a recurved path, tracking northeastward, nearly parallel to the coastline of Odisha and West Bengal.
The weather system is unlikely to become a tropical storm, mainly for two reasons. One, the proximity of the coastline acts as a deterrent and secondly the open sea travel of the system is very limited, to trigger further growth. Still, the deep depression will dump very heavy rains over the sea and extremely rough conditions over wide area of west and northwest BoB. Gale speed winds and intense weather activity, is expected over these parts of Bay of Bengal. Off shore installations and the rigging operations are surely at risk of witnessing squally weather with heavy downpour between 15th and 17thNovember.
Weather system will not cross the coastline and move parallel to it , keeping north Coastal Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal on to its left. Strong winds and heavy rains at few places are quite likely between 15th and 17th November, with peak activity on 16thNov. Some of the coastal locations like Satapada, Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Baleswar, Baripada, Digha, Contai, Diamond Harbour, Haldia, Nandigram and South 24 Pargana can expect squally weather and heavy rains during this period. Mednipur, Howrah and Kolkata will keep relatively safe distance from the core of depression. However, cloudy skies with moderate or light showers can not be ruled out.
Deep depression may hit Bangladesh during late night tomorrow or wee hours of 17thNov. Heavy rains are likely over south coastal parts of Bangladesh and neighbouring region. Tracking further northeastward, the weakened system will lash northeast India, with higher intensity and spread on 17thNov. Meghalaya, Southeast Assam, Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur can expect heavy rains at few places. Improvement in weather conditions is likely from 18thNovember onward.
