Skymet weather

Early signs of likely cyclone in the Arabian Sea, observation watch next 72 hours

May 11, 2021 8:15 AM |

Cyclone Nivar

The Equatorial Arabian Sea has meteorologically become a zone of contention. The satellite imagery and wind vectors depict turbulent conditions between 5 Degree North and 5 Degree South latitude and 50 Degree East to 75 Degree East longitude. This equatorial belt also positions the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which may host a number of disturbances embedded in its entire east-west stretch.

Normally equatorial belt suppresses the generation of any cyclogenesis but exceptions can not be ruled out. The circulating wind field on either side of the equator prompts strict observation watch to pre-empt development in the next 48-72 hours. Sea conditions are favorable in time and space with adequate heat potential. Also, one thing is sure for such freak disturbances that on crossing the threshold parameters, these are quick enough to sustain rapid intensification.

The Arabian Sea has not hosted a cyclone during May for the last 2 years. But in May 2018, 2 cyclones in quick succession were witnessed: Tropical Cyclone Sagar between 16th and 20th May and an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Mekunu from 21st to 26th May. The beauty of these cyclones lies in the fact that most of these storms at this time of the year head for Somalia, Yemen, and Oman, as it happened in the case of Sagar and Mekunu also. But there are few recurving outliers that do threaten the Gujarat coast and Konkan region.

The Indian subcontinent is inching closer to welcome southwest monsoon 2021. The monsoon current makes incursion over South Andaman Sea and Bay Island 7-10 days prior to stepping over mainland Kerala. The formation of any such storms in the Arabian Sea at this point in time is consequential for the advancement of the current over Indian waters. Skymet will keep a close watch on the oceanic developments over the next 72hrs and apprise accordingly.

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