This year Monsoon rains remained subdued over East Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar. As of September 10, East UP maintains a deficit of 42% and Bihar is also running short by 24%, in terms of Monsoon rains recorded this season.
Conditions in these two regions were almost similar in July and August too. June ended with East UP recording a deficit of 12% and Bihar a deficit of 28%. Simply speaking, mainly below normal rains have been observed in this part of the country.
East UP and Bihar have been witnessing limited rainfall activity triggered by the axis of Monsoon trough. In the last 24 hours, Bhagalpur received 34 mm, Patna 0.6 mm, Purnia 0.5 mm and Gorakhpur in East UP recorded 0.6 mm of rain. However, now, scattered light to moderate rain is expected to commence over Bihar and East UP from today.
Initially, northern parts of Bihar and East UP will receive rain. This activity is likely to continue for the next 48 hours. These rains can be attributed to a cyclonic circulation developing over west central Bay of Bengal which is liable to induce a low pressure area very soon. This low pressure area is expected to give rainfall activity over the region. From September 14 to 16, several parts of Bihar and East UP will receive more rainfall. After September 16, the intensity of rain will decrease and weather over these parts will go almost dry.
Since last few years, it has been observed that East UP and Bihar have not been receiving enough rains during Monsoon. Deficient rainfall over these parts can be attributed to a change in Monsoon pattern. Earlier, whenever any low pressure area developed over North Bay of Bengal, it usually moved in the north westerly direction affecting West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, and parts of Uttar Pradesh.
This year, only one such system moved inland and affected these areas. Most weather systems that develop over North or Central Bay of Bengal are taking a westerly track and affecting Odisha, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, and at times Vidarbha region.
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