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First Phase Of Monsoon Onset : Few Gains , More Gaps

June 15, 2022 8:17 AM |

Southwest Monsoon has reached the outskirts of Gujarat on the western side and entered extreme northeast corners of Bihar and Jharkhand.  Before this, it covered Northeast India in its entirety along with Sikkim. The Arabian Sea branch has advanced over complete Kerala, Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, and most parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Simultaneously, the surge has touched Telangana and Rayalaseema, as well.

Despite an early starter, gains were devoid. Progress was sluggish and intensity remained mild. Notwithstanding, there is a typical monsoon flavor along the Western Ghats and Northeast India. The other parts have a split fragrance and on and off seasonal showers. The state of Kerala, the entry gate to the mainland is deficit by 57 % between 01st and 13th June. Also, there is a Pan-India shortfall of 37 % during the same period, with a large deficit over the central parts. As of now, South Interior Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu are the only sub-divisions with mild arrears of rainfall.

Progress of monsoon generally takes place in 3 phases. The 1st phase lasts between 01st-15thJune and drags the monsoon current from south to north up the Western Ghats along with interior subdivisions of the South Peninsula. Simultaneously, the Bay of Bengal branch covers the entire stretch of Northeast India and travels up to halfway through the state of Bihar and Jharkhand, sweeping West Bengal and Odisha enroute.

The 2nd phase of progress is more east-west oriented, from 15th to 25th June. During this period, the Arabian Sea branch advances little from South Gujarat to North Gujarat, touching Rajasthan but leaving aside kutch. The Bay branch makes a big leap to cover Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttrakhand, and most of Himachal Pradesh & Jammu- Kashmir-Ladakh. It stops just on the outers of the national capital Delhi.

The 3rd and the final phase between 26th June to 08th July is run together and parallel by both the branches to cover the entire country. Many times, it staggers short of entering the last post of West Rajasthan. Monsoon steam is the least in the final leg and invariably needs a push by western disturbance to peep deep into border areas of Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, and North & West Rajasthan.

Monsoon is not expected to be vigorous all through its journey and takes a pause, to catch up breath. However, the run so far has few ‘gains’ and many ‘hollows’. The absence of monsoon drivers in terms of the low pressure or depression has slackened the speed and strength of the stream.  There is nothing on the horizon for the next 10 days or so. However, the monsoon has its own energy dynamics and has the potential to keep advancing, albeit at a slower pace.

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