The state of Kerala is rain surplus this pre monsoon season. Between 01st March and 04th May, an excess of 32% rainfall has been recorded in Kerala. Kerala has faired well despite significant shortages in the neighboring sub divisions of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh. In the past 24 hours also, Kerala registered double the normal of daily rainfall at 9.1mm. Meteorological conditions look favorable for intense showers over most parts of Kerala adding substantially and enhancing further the surplus status of the season.
Most of the pre-monsoon activity for Kerala is governed by the central peninsula trough. Being oscillatory in nature, it keeps distributing pre-monsoon showers on regular intervals over most sub divisions of South India, and particularly Kerala, Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka. Winds on either side of the coastline by virtue of their differential strength decide positioning of this semi permanent feature. More often it seems to left biased bringing more rains over Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
Conditions seems to be favorable for skewed position of the trough, more inclined towards the West Coast. A cyclonic circulation over North Interior Karnataka continues to push this trough along the interiors of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Northern half of Kerala is likely to experience more intense weather activity than other parts. Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kasargod, Mallapuram, Thrissur, Kannur and Palakkad are more favorite locations for moderate showers at many places and heavy at few places. Most of the weather activity over Kerala is expected to take place during evening and night for rest of the week.