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July Glut Smash Scarce June - Monsoon Shades Unveiled

July 26, 2022 8:00 PM |

Southwest monsoon 2022  commenced journey on a sticky wicket.  Due to long pauses over the various parts in the onset phase, almost all the sub divisions in the central and northern parts remained deficient.  Except northeast India, collectively all the regions fell short of their normal rainfall by a big margin.  Central region topped the list with a monthly shortfall of -30% rainfall.  Pan India rainfall dropped more than 40% below the normal during 1st half of June.  Courtesy, heavy rains over Northeast India, the national average improved and the month ended with an overall deficiency of 8%.  Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha and Jharkhand observed rainfall deficiency of 40%-60%.  Inadequate and unequitable distribution of monsoon rains left the farming community in a lurch, derailing the sowing process.

July broke the deadlock. Monsoon took a leap to complete onset before time.  Chain of monsoon systems travelled across the central parts of the country from Odisha to Gujarat, flooding some of these pockets with copious rains. Parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat faced scare of getting deluged, submerging few areas for days together. While the situation eased out in the hinterland of the core monsoon rainfed zone, some regions faced the irony of incessant heavy rain, damaging tracks of paddy, cotton and other cash crops.

First half of the monsoon season (June &July) has witnessed different flavors of monsoon.  Scary June was dumped deep and July offered  decent rains covering most parts of the country. The left out pockets of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal have also found solace, albeit marginal but promising more in the offing in the remaining days of July and a roll over to August.

July 2022 has been the rainiest since 2016, so far. It has already exceeded its monthly average rainfall of 285mm, with 5 days still in the kitty.  This month has the distinction of recording above average rainfall on all days so far, except 3 days. Nearly on 15 days, the daily rainfall has been in excess of 10mm. Also, on 2 occasions, it exceeded 15mm, with 13th July being the rainiest of all measuring 16.7 mm. A good spread and consistent pace has managed to retain the seasonal excess of 11%, for the last one week. This is over and above the shortfall of 8% recorded in the month of June. July itself is surplus by 25% rainfall between 01st and 25thJuly 2022. In all probabilities, it may overtake the reign from July 2016, when it measured a total of 309.2mm.  This will only be 5th time since 2000, when July possibly record rainfall in excess of 300mm.

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