As anticipated, a low-pressure area has formed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), off South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Cyclonic circulation of the system extends up to 25,000’, having a southward tilt with height. A couple of trough lines are extending southwestward and eastward from the centre of the system, thereby increasing the envelope of weather activity. Low pressure will cross the coast to move over parts of interior Odisha and the neighbourhood in the next 24 hours.
Low pressure will be a slow-moving system and will linger on for the next 4-5 days over central parts of the country, largely over the state of Madhya Pradesh. The system will trigger a fair amount of monsoon activity over Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Flanks on either side of the track will receive a decent spread of monsoon activity, covering Maharashtra, Telangana, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The forward section of the low pressure will ingress some parts of Rajasthan, on the eastern boundary. The weather system will fail to effectively reach Gujarat, West Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab.
Along the Western Ghats, fairly widespread rain and thundershowers are likely covering Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa and South Coastal Gujarat. Weather activity will vacate from most parts of the South Peninsula, namely Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and southern parts of Telangana, in the next 24 hours. Intense weather activity with a decent spread is likely over the eastern and central parts of the country. Southern and eastern parts of Rajasthan will have short spells of rain possibly covering Pratapgarh, Chittorgarh, Dungarpur, Banswara, Baran, Bundi, Kota and later reaching Bharatpur, Dholpur, Swai Madhopur, Dausa, Alwar, Ajmer and Jaipur. Wet spell, short and sweet, for these parts of Rajasthan, may as well be the retreating monsoon showers, indicating the commencement of withdrawal anytime after 15th September.
This low pressure will give reasonably good showers over the parts, which need them most at this time. The rainfall deficiencies were mounting once again for the states of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The looser pockets will include Gujarat, West Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana. Track and reach of the low pressure will draw the retreating line of monsoon. Subsequent weather systems, if any, will not be venturing into parts of western and northern India. The normal withdrawal date of monsoon from the western parts will also come closer, by the end of the life cycle of this monsoon low.