Low pressure area is likely to form over Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) within next 24 hours. Prolonged break monsoon conditions will cease and active monsoon is likely over the eastern and central parts of the country for about one week or even longer. Wet spell will stretch and cover southern parts of the country, as well. However, the spread, intensity and duration may not be as good as over the core monsoon zone of central parts. Northern and western parts will remain mostly dry for at least one week and light rain in some parts, thereafter.
A cyclonic circulation is persisting over northeast and north BoB for the last 48 hours. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over northwest BoB in the next 24hours or even earlier. The system will move westward to reach coastal parts of Odisha tomorrow itself and later move over South Odisha, South Chhattisgarh and adjoining parts of Vidarbha and East Madhya Pradesh. The weather system will move westward very slowly and will literally meander over the central parts covering Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and bracing some parts of south and southeast Rajasthan.
Formation of cyclonic circulation and later low pressure area has dragged the eastern end of monsoon trough to south of its earlier position. It is likely to drift further, well south of its normal position. Even the western end of this trough, currently running north of its normal position, will also shift southward. Scattered rains are likely for the next 2-3 days over West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh.
Short spell of moderate showers is likely over the southern parts for the next 48hours. Telangana and North Karnataka will be the chief beneficiary and rest of the region will observe light activity, outside Kerala. Entire stretch of Western Ghats from Konkan to Kerala will observe active monsoon conditions for over one week. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala between 07th and 09thSeptember.
By the time this active phase of monsoon eases out, yet another monsoon system may appear over the Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation seems to be evolving in the close proximity of North Arakan Coast and Bay of Bengal. The weather system will be monitored for any further development.
