Low pressure area is likely to form over the northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) and coastal parts of Odisha. A cyclonic circulation as a precursor to the low pressure may appear over the same area on 23rd June. Conditions seem to be favourable for consolidation and intensification to a low-pressure area the next day, on 24th June 2023. Low pressure is likely to move inland quickly and travel across central parts of the country covering Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The weakened system will reach Rajasthan and Gujarat towards fag end of the month. Monsoon current will speed up, overcoming earlier sluggish movement, and cover central and western parts, meeting the timelines.
Monsoon pace and intensity have generally remained inadequate and lagged advancement over the eastern and central parts. By now, the southwest monsoon was to cover Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and many parts of Bihar and Jharkhand. Monsoon current reaches even Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand by 20th June.
States of Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Telangana have a rain deficit of 80% to 90%, so far. This low-pressure area will take the monsoon rains to these states, leaving Maharashtra and Telangana with limited weather activity. Even the south peninsula may not get decent rains under the influence of low pressure. Once, the system reaches over Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh on 25-26 June, the monsoon stream will accelerate westerly winds along the West Coast. Konkan region will become the chief beneficiary. Monsoon is likely to advance over most parts of Konkan including Mumbai, anytime around 26/27 June. Konkan and South Coastal Gujarat are likely to have heavy rains during that period.
Monsoon advancement is likely to catch up with the normal dates across Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Monsoon is likely to reach the outskirts of Delhi and reach the national capital without significant delay. Progress of the monsoon will abate the heat wave from most parts of the country. Extreme heat will remain confined to Rajasthan and North Gujarat. The rainfall deficit margin will also reduce with the upcoming wet spell.
