A low pressure area is expected to form over North Bay of Bengal (BoB) early next week. This will be the 2nd monsoon system of July, developing over BoB. The system will trigger active to vigorous monsoon conditions over eastern, central and western parts of the country, in a staggered manner during the 3rd week, between the 17th and 23rd of July.
A cyclonic circulation is likely to come up over Northwest BoB around 16th July. This system, as a precursor to the low pressure area, will consolidate for about 48hr over the same region. It is expected to turn into a low pressure area over North BoB on 18th July. Subsequently, it may strengthen into a well-marked low pressure and breach the coastline on 19th July. Later, it is expected to move along the central parts of the country.
It will be rather early to precisely predict its track, intensity and timelines at this point in time. However, the initial indications favour its strengthening over the sea and later move across Odisha, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. In the last leg, it is likely to move towards West Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. This low pressure will control the position of the monsoon trough, which is the major driver of the rainfall over the central and northern parts of the country.
Monsoon activity had been vigorous over the northern parts, both the mountains and plains, along with Madhya Pradesh, during the 2nd week of July. Active monsoon recovered the rainfall deficiency and even became marginally surplus. Last 3 days, monsoon activity has taken a dip and the daily rainfall has dropped below normal. Similar conditions are likely for the next few days and heavy weather activity will be limited to small pockets.
Sikkim, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh are at risk of having intense weather activity for the next 3 days. Rest parts, normal monsoon conditions are expected, outside Northeast India, during this period. A decrease in the monsoon activity may consume part of the surplus rainfall, so far. After a relative ‘quiet’, uptick in the monsoon activity is likely from 17th July onwards. Upcoming low pressure will be monitored closely for consequential weather activity over different parts.
