Low pressure in the Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) is closing into the coastline. It is mainly lying over the sea and partly over Coastal Odisha. The system will move westward and lie completely over land, covering the interiors of Odisha and South Chhattisgarh, in the next 24 hours. The cyclonic circulation continues to extend in the higher levels, having southward tilt with height. An east-west oriented axis of dilatation extends from Coastal Odisha to West Madhya Pradesh, cutting across Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh. The forward section of this axis has intense convergence spanning across West and North Madhya Pradesh. Accordingly, the weather activity will be more powerful in those areas.
This low-pressure area is a slow-moving system and is unlikely to travel deep over the western and northern parts of the country. The weakened low-pressure area and its circulation will linger over central and western parts of Madhya Pradesh for the next 4-5 days. Active to vigorous monsoon conditions are expected over Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Very heavy rainfall over some parts of west and north Madhya Pradesh during this period may cause localized flooding and inundation of low-lying areas.
Moderate showers at many places and heavy burst at few, is expected over Chhattisgarh. Locations like Ambikapur, Pendra, Durg, Raipur, Jagdalpur, Bastar and Dantewada can expect strong monsoon activity. East Madhya Pradesh, contiguous to the state of Chhattisgarh can also expect similar weather conditions. Northern and western parts of Madhya Pradesh will be more vulnerable between the 07th and 11th September. Indore, Ujjain, Khandwa, Khargone, Rajgarh, Neemuch, Ratlam and the capital city Bhopal bear the risk of heavy rainfall. Over the Bundelkhand region, Gwalior, Guna, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Ashoknagar, Bhind, Morena, Datia and Tikamgarh will be susceptible to heavy rainfall on these days.
The absence of rain in the month of August has made the entire state of Madhya Pradesh rain deficit. West Madhya Pradesh has a seasonal shortfall of -22% and East Madhya Pradesh, is a shade better at -16%. Most cities of the state, including the capital Bhopal are rain deficit, in excess of 30% seasonal rainfall. The expected wet spell will improve these margins. Weather conditions are expected to ease out next week, significantly from 12th September onward.
