A cyclonic circulation over South Tamil Nadu extends up to 5.8 Km above mean sea level. It is likely to move in West Northwest direction towards Southeast and adjoining East Central Arabian Sea during next three days.
Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to develop over east Central Arabian Sea around November 8. The period between October and December is favorable for the cyclone formation over Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal. We do not expect the low-pressure area to intensify in a depression or cyclone. It may intensive into a well mark the low-pressure area.
It may continue to move in West Northwest direction away from Indian coast. Therefore, we can say that despite slight intensification, there will not be any threat to Indian mainland. Most favorable route of the weather systems developing over Arabian Sea is in Northwest direction. 20 or 30% of the weather system developing over Arabian Sea tend to recurve in northeast direction towards south Sind Gujarat or North Maharashtra.
