Under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over Southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region, a low pressure area has formed over the region. Cyclonic circulation is extending up to 12,000 feet in the mid atmosphere. Cloud manifestation support presence of the system. Weather activity is likely over Lakshadweep Islands and partly over state of Kerala. However, no upgrade expected in the intensity of low pressure area.
Low pressure area is at a safe distance from the Kerala coast. However, convergence of winds and increased convection will result uptick in the northeast monsoon activity over the state in the next about 3 days. More activity is likely on 08thDec all along the coast during this period. Lakshadweep Islands like Amini Devi, Minicoy and the airport region at Agathi will have intense weather activity over the next 48 hours.
Entire north-south stretch of Kerala will have scattered rain and thundershowers. While impact of cyclone Michaung ravaged state of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, Kerala nearly remained untouched. Either light or no rainfall was experienced during 04th to 06thDec, when the storm deluged some parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Under the influence of this weather system, fairly wide spread rain and thundershowers are likely. Most preferred locations being Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Alapuzha, Cannur and Kozhikode.
Low pressure area is quite low in latitude and therefore may not intensify much. Though , sea surface temperatures are quite favorable but low grade of requisite Coriolis Force and high vertical wind shear will not support rapid intensification. As such, the low pressure area is likely to further move westward, away from Kerala coast and Lakshadweep region. Presence of anticyclone over central Arabian Sea is likely to push the system further south, over equatorial region of south central Arabian Sea. Weak circulation of the system will keep on shifting westward and persist till 11thDec and gradually fill up over the sea itself.
Accordingly, an uptick in the weather activity is likely only for Lakshadweep and Coastal Kerala till 09thDec 2023. Drop in intensity and spread of weather will start from 10thDec and become the least in the subsequent 48-72 hours.