A fresh low pressure area is likely to form over the West Central Bay of Bengal in the next 48 hours. The weather system is forming in the close proximity of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha. Initially, a cyclonic circulation is forming over the same region on 11th September which remains stationary and gets more organized in the subsequent 24 hours. This feature is likely to percolate to lower levels and appear as a surface low pressure on 12th/13th September.
The last low pressure area this season had formed on 24th August (record 5th low pressure in August) which moved across central parts resulting flooding in some parts of Madhya Pradesh.
This ‘Low’ will cross North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha Coast on the 13th September affecting even other parts like South Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Vidarbha on the same day. Further the system will move across other parts of Maharashtra ( Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan), Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan till 17th September. Monsoon activity will revive and heavy rainfall is expected over parts of Maharashtra and West Madhya Pradesh on 14th &15th September. Later the peripherals of this system may cause scattered rainfall over North Madhya Pradesh and DLH/NCR between 16th-18th September. In the meantime another system may be forming over the same area in the Bay of Bengal.
The average daily rainfall in September so far has mostly remained below normal and the cumulative deficiency in the first 10 days stands at 29%. The two back to back weather systems are likely to energize the monsoon surge mainly across the central and southern parts of the country. The shortfall is likely to get covered to a large extent to get registered in the normal range.
These upcoming weather systems will keep the monsoon winds active, both from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The easterly winds are going to sweep the Indo – Gangetic plains and also penetrate even up to Rajasthan. This will possibly delay the process of withdrawal of monsoon which otherwise would have commenced on around 15th Sep from West Rajasthan and 21st September from Delhi. The retreat of monsoon may get pushed by 15 days or so from Rajasthan.