Monsoon 2019: Deficit June tinkles poor Monsoon ahead

June 19, 2019 4:11 PM |

Monsoon Rains in June

June is an onset month when Monsoon travels from southern parts and reaches just about Delhi NCR. Parts which are left out include Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana. By July 15, Monsoon covers the entire country.

Month of June is an onset month, wherein the normal daily rains keep on increasing, starting with 1.7 mm in the beginning, climbing and halfway reaching at 6 mm, finally ending with 8 mm of rains.

During the first fortnight of June, only 64 mm, i.e. 40 percent of rains are seen out of 164 mm rainfall, while the rest of 60 percent rains are seen in the second fortnight of June.

Though June rains are not a decider for Monsoon performance, but they do hold key to overall performance. As per earlier records, if June ends with deficiency of 50 percent and all the other three months perform at a 100 percent, season ends with 91 percent. If there persists 40 percent deficiency, rains are at 93 percent in the end and if June deficiency stands at 30 percent, Monsoon rains are still below normal at 95 percent.

However, as far as records are concerned, Monsoon neither fails in all months, i.e. when the deficiency is more than being over 10 percent, nor does it outperform in all four months with surplus being 10 percent.

Talking about June performance in the last few years, take a look at the table below:

June Rains in the last few years

Thus, the month of June in the last few years has seen both deficiency and surplus, depicting large variability in the recent past in terms of rains.

Big rainfall deficiency in 2014 led to a drought with Monsoon ending at 88 percent. However, 2015 which saw 16 percent surplus rains, still led to a drought with Monsoon rains at 86 percent.

Whenever, June is deficient by 40 percent, recovery becomes challenging and usually does not happen. It becomes a daunting task and Monsoon at least ends up being below normal.

Talking about historic figures in terms of June Rains against their Monsoon performance, check the table below:

Monsoon Rains in June

Out of these 10 mentioned years, only one year has been normal while three are below normal with six of the years being drought years.

Talking about this season, so far, i.e., until June 18, 46.1 mm of rains has been recorded against 82.4 mm making it 44 percent deficient. All four regions remained on the deficient side with Central India topping the deficiency chart at -57 percent, followed by East and Northeast India at -43 percent, South India at -38 percent and finally Northwest India at -27 percent.

Rainfall Performance in June so far

 

This season, out of 18 days in June, only one day has seen normal rains while all the rest have remained deficient with the deficiency climbing to over 40 percent on many occasions. The deficiency exceeded 50 percent on five occasions including -59 percent on June 5, -56 percent on June 6, -58 percent on June 9, -53 percent on June 11 and -52 percent on June 18.

Now, it seems like some recovery is likely to take place since good rains may be seen in many parts in the fourth week, between June 22 to June 27. These days may achieve their daily normal rains and sometimes even go beyond that thereby dropping the deficit figures to just some extent.

Image Credit: Latestly

Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com






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