Monsoon 2019: El Nino continues to decline, inches closer to neutral value

August 20, 2019 2:20 PM |

Rain and Monsoon

The time has finally come to bid adieu to El Niño, gradually paving way for ENSO neutral conditions. According to Skymet Weather, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) continue to decline for the third consecutive week. In fact, this week the drop was a significant one wherein it has declined from 0.4°C last week to 0.1°C.

हिन्दी में पढ़ें: मॉनसून 2019: अल नीनो लगातार हो रहा है कमज़ोर, जल्द आएगी तटस्थ स्थिति

According to weathermen, fluctuation in the Nino indices is quite normal. Prior to this also, Nino 3.4 had dropped to 0.2°C on July 22 but soon after went on increasing for the next two weeks. However, these fluctuations are indicating towards shift of El Niño towards neutral.

El Nino Index

For declaring neutral conditions, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which is three months running mean of SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region, must settle below the threshold value of 0.5°C.

So far, ONI values have been settling above the normal average for the last nine connective spells. But ONI values have also been showing decreasing trend for last two episodes. Thus, we now expect next episode of JJA (June-July-August) to settle below the required temperature of 0.5°C.

ONI Values

The collapse of El Niño conditions is aligning with the prediction made by most of the weather models that had earlier indicated towards decline during the second half of Monsoon. Accordingly, Skymet Weather had also given more rains in August and September as compared to June and July.

There are only 30% probability of El Niño at present, which is declining further as we proceed. ENSO neutral conditions are likely to prevail till winter season.

Model forecast

As per weathermen, El Niño would now have least impact on Monsoon rainfall. August has already performed more than expectations. Well, Southwest Monsoon has its own dynamics and driving factors and has performed in the absence of oceanic parameters.

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