El Nino not yet over and done, Monsoon 2019 still under its shadow

July 10, 2019 12:48 PM |


Looking at the recent equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) records, it seemed that El Niño had started tapering down. However, the deadly phenomenon has once again bounced back.

After dropping consecutively for three weeks, SST in Nino index of 3.4, which is the area of concern for India, has increased again last week. However, despite drop, Nino indices were settling well above the threshold values throughout. Following are current values of various indices across the Pacific Ocean.

El Nino Index

Not only this, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which is three months running mean of SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region, also continues to be above the threshold values. The most recent ONI value AMJ (April – June) is 0.7°C.

The average value of Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) taken over a period of three months for the last eight consecutive episodes are as follows:

ONI Values

Looking at the continuous drop in SSTs, Australia’s nodal weather agency, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) had withdrawn the El Niño watch and believed that indices would continue to remain below the threshold value. Unlike rest meteorological agencies across the world who consider 0.5°C as threshold value, BOM follows threshold value at 0.8°C. However, rest of agencies have not lowered the guard.

As per weather models, the probability of El Niño during July still continues to be as high as 70%-75%. In fact, the probability would continue to over 50% throughout the ongoing Monsoon season.

El Nino Model forecast

Impact on performance of Monsoon 2019 

We have already seen the impact of El Niño over Monsoon season during June, which ended with huge rainfall deficiency of 33%. July did see Monsoon reviving during the first fortnight, but the country is now heading for break Monsoon conditions.

Usually, country witnesses break Monsoon condition in August as by then the Monsoon had covered entire India. Although, this has not been the case so far, but weather conditions are almost akin to what of which we witness during El Niño years.

During an El Niño, we expect more as well as prolonged spells of break Monsoon conditions. Although all the other factors favouring Monsoon such as MJO (Madden–Julian Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) are present, but as believed El Niño is the most powerful phenomenon and has the power to dominate all.

Image Credit: NDTV

Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com

For accurate weather forecast and updates, download Skymet Weather (Android App | iOS App) App.

Weather Forecast

Other Latest Stories

Weather on Twitter
Monday, September 16 08:29Reply
During the next 3 to 4 days, light to moderate #rains are likely over North #TamilNadu, #Karnataka, #Kerala and… t.co/3UCCmqDIx1
Sunday, September 15 21:30Reply
Light to moderate #rains are likely over #Assam, #ArunachalPradesh and Sub-Himalayan #WestBengal during the next 36… t.co/Xckf0CntMU
Sunday, September 15 21:00Reply
RT @SkymetHindi: वाराणसी, प्रयागराज, मिर्जापुर, जौनपुर, प्रतापगढ़, अयोध्या, गोरखपुर, बलिया, लखनऊ, कानपुर, चित्रकूट सहित उत्तर प्रदेश के पू…
Sunday, September 15 20:44Reply
RT @SkymetHindi: उत्तर प्रदेश और बिहार सहित पूर्वी भारत के भागों में सक्रिय रहेगा मॉनसून। पटना, गया, वाराणसी, मिर्ज़ापुर, प्रयागराज, गोरखपु…
Sunday, September 15 20:37Reply
Heavy showers are possible at some places over Southwest #MadhyaPradesh. Chances of #rains in #Mumbai, #Delhi,… t.co/VMByGgEcyG
Sunday, September 15 20:32Reply
Very warm weather conditions were prevailing over Delhi and NCR since the last few days. So much so that #Delhi rec… t.co/pVo35UuTVM
Sunday, September 15 18:21Reply
Hence, light rainfall activity will be further affecting over #Delhi and adjoining regions. #Rains of light intensi… t.co/DXW7zlJi8e
Sunday, September 15 18:20Reply
According to the rainfall data available with #Skymet from June 1 to September 14, Gangetic #WestBengal is rain def… t.co/ju7DniPzsy
Sunday, September 15 17:00Reply
Places like Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, New Jalpaiguri, Siliguri, Dinajpur, Malda would experience moderate to heavy s… t.co/wiQZ9cqcfp
Sunday, September 15 17:00Reply

latest news

Skymet weather

Download the Skymet App

Our app is available for download so give it a try