Dark clouds hover over Monsoon 2019 as El Nino intensifies

June 6, 2019 2:34 PM |

Rain and Monsoon

In a big blow to Monsoon 2019, El Niño indices have further strengthened, this week. For the third consecutive week, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) continues to not only rise but by big margin. Particularly, Nino 3.4 region, which is the area of concern for India has increased significantly from 0.8°C on May 27 to 1°C on June 3.

Following are current values of various indices across the Pacific Ocean.

El Nino temperatures

In fact, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which is three months running mean of SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region, would now be settling around 0.8°C and chances are bright this value might climb to 0.9°C. This indicates that El Niño is showing no signs of devolving any time soon.

The average value of oceanic Niño Index (ONI) taken over a period of three months for the last four consecutive episodes are as follows:

ONI Values

The probability of El Niño is around 70% to 80% through June and 55% to 60% through rest Monsoon months. Adding to this is the fact that sea conditions are favourable for El Niño to retain these high values. SST would remain well above the threshold value throughout the Monsoon months of June to September.

El Nino model output

According to weathermen, the situation has now become quite grim as Monsoon 2019 has practically begun, although it is yet to make onset over Indian mainland. The situation is not rosy for the onset month of June, which weather models are indicating is likely to see very less rainfall to the tune of 77%.

Onset of Monsoon 2019 is also not likely to be a powerful one. In total, Skymet Weather expects initial progress as well as performance of the Monsoon to be sluggish.

El Niño performance through March, April and May

March was fairly warm, with Nino indices showcasing a rising trend. In fact, SST were fairly above than the threshold value of 0.5°C. Nino 3.4 saw temperatures settling between 1°C and 1.1°C.

El Nino temperatures for March

April saw temperatures sliding, wherein it gave indication that El Niño has started devolving. The temperatures in Nino 3.4 settled between 0.8°C and 0.9°C throughout the month.

El Nino temperatures in April

May saw lots of variation with temperatures even dipping straight to 0.5°C on May 13 but rising thereafter.

El Nino temperatures for May

Image Credit: Indian Express

Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com


For accurate weather forecast and updates, download Skymet Weather (Android App | iOS App) App.

Weather Forecast

Other Latest Stories

Weather on Twitter
According to the rainfall data available with Skymet, #Pune in the month of October so far has recorded 198 mm of… t.co/2H8HIohq0m
Tuesday, October 22 18:00Reply
#TyphoonBualoi quickly developed an eye and powerful thunderstorms as it intensified further. #Neoguri is expected… t.co/5eBoSAnHZV
Tuesday, October 22 17:30Reply
तमिलनाडु, आंध्र प्रदेश, कर्नाटक में रेड अलर्ट। तेलंगाना और केरल में भी भारी बारिश की संभावना। चेन्नई में अगले 24 घं… t.co/azTFiYhKQG
Tuesday, October 22 17:15Reply
स्काइमेट ने तमिलनाडु में अगले 24 घंटों के दौरान भारी बारिश की संभावना को देखते हुए रेड अलर्ट जारी किया है। साथ ही,… t.co/Xd7WBWInsb
Tuesday, October 22 17:00Reply
पंजाब व हरियाणा में पराली जलाने की घटनाओं में हुई वृद्धि | #Hindi #Punjab #Haryana t.co/V87hzuiEPS
Tuesday, October 22 16:45Reply
#Marathi: मागील अनेक दिवसांपासून राज्यात पावसाळी गतिविधी सुरूच आहेत. खरं तर, ऑक्टोबर महिना ज्यामध्ये जास्त पाऊस अनु… t.co/SgyXc0gZLc
Tuesday, October 22 16:30Reply
Places like #Nellore, #Kavali, #Ongole, #Machilipatnam, Kakinada, #Visakhapatnam, Bapatla may receive heavy downpou… t.co/waxsVcwISN
Tuesday, October 22 16:23Reply
#Hindi: बिहार के दक्षिणी भागों में 24 और 25 अक्टूबर को भीषण वर्षा होने की संभावना है। किसानों को पहले से ही हो जाना… t.co/xdQSADHcHT
Tuesday, October 22 16:15Reply
Heavy #rains are very likely to trigger flash floods and waterlogging over the coastal parts of #AndhraPradesh. As… t.co/dnpTQW1tZX
Tuesday, October 22 16:05Reply
Moderate to heavy #rain with few very heavy spells will lash the coastal stations of #AndhraPradesh until October 2… t.co/PpfzqeYmj7
Tuesday, October 22 16:00Reply

latest news

Skymet weather

Download the Skymet App

Our app is available for download so give it a try