El Nino shows no devolving signs as Monsoon 2019 knocks the door

May 9, 2019 1:33 PM |


After tapering down slightly during April, El Niño indices have again witnessed rise in equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) in last two weeks, although rise has been a marginal one. The present SST in Nino index of 3.4, which is the area of concern for Indian region, stands at 0.9°C, is well above the threshold value of 0.5°C. Following are current values of various indices across the Pacific Ocean.

El Nino Index

In addition to this, current Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which is three months running mean of SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region for FMA (February-April) also maintained its value at 0.8°C. In fact, the following episode of MAM (March-May) is most likely to follow the same route or even increase around 0.9°C.

With this, we would again like to reiterate that the probability of El Niño conditions is still over 60% through Summer 2019 that includes Monsoon months. We can expect decline in El Niño but chances would still remain as high as 50% during the winter months.

According to weathermen, March and April have been fairly warm. May has also begun on the similar note. With SSTs maintaining their values, they clearly rejects devolving of El Niño conditions as of now. It does not look like that it is going to collapse anytime also.

Monsoon 2019 to suffer as El Niño retains values

Although weather models have been indicating towards its devolving, but we are afraid that if El Niño devolves at the end, the damage would be done till then.

El Niño has direct bearing on the Indian Monsoon and has the power to corrupt the same. This deadly phenomenon is invariably linked with below normal rains or even drought in some years. The presence of El Niño is enough, irrespective of its intensity of being weak, moderate or strong.

Warming in ocean waters has already given indication for some below normal rains during the onset Monsoon month of June. This is in line with the Skymet Weather’s Monsoon forecast for June that has predicted drought like conditions or extremely low rainfall to the tune of 77%.

The countdown to Southwest Monsoon 2019 has begun, which normally reaches Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 20. From there on, it takes 10 days of time to reach Indian mainland of Kerala.

Image Credit: en.wikipedia.org

Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com

For accurate weather forecast and updates, download Skymet Weather (Android App | iOS App) App.

Weather Forecast

Other Latest Stories

Weather on Twitter
The death toll in #Japan after #Typhoon #Hagibis has reached to a whopping 72 #weather t.co/qbsB08cgNt
Wednesday, October 16 22:16Reply
17 अक्टूबर का मौसम पूर्वानुमान: दक्षिण-पश्चिमी मॉनसून ने ली विदाई, दक्षिण भारत में भारी बारिश #monsoon2019 #weathert.co/OD7xccYfAV
Wednesday, October 16 21:52Reply
Weather Forecast Oct 17: Northeast Monsoon rains to lash Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra #weather #Raint.co/lBsHaIxlGo
Wednesday, October 16 21:16Reply
हम उम्मीद करते है की दक्षिण झारखंड में एक-दो स्थानों पर 17 अक्टूबर को हल्की बारिश हो सकती है #weather #Rain #Bihart.co/5iB80Q2JS8
Wednesday, October 16 21:00Reply
हवामान अंदाज 17 ऑक्टोबर: सिंधुदुर्ग, सांगली आणि सातारा येथे पाऊस अपेक्षित #Marathi #Sangli #Satara t.co/ZzFfwFbujB
Wednesday, October 16 20:45Reply
दक्षिण भारत में उत्तर-पूर्वी मॉनसून की हुई शुरुआत। केरल, तमिलनाडु, कर्नाटक और आंध्र प्रदेश में होगी बारिश। #Hindit.co/gT2s3sYPwM
Wednesday, October 16 20:15Reply
कमी दाबाचे क्षेत्र जे सध्या लक्षद्वीपजवळ चक्राकार परिभ्रमण म्हणून उपस्थित आहे. ही प्रणाली पश्चिम / वायव्य दिशेने उ… t.co/Gdm6lldzMU
Wednesday, October 16 20:00Reply
17 और 18 अक्टूबर के बीच पंजाब के कुछ भागो में हल्की बारिश हो सकती है। हरियाणा में बादल छाए रहेगे लेकिन बारिश की सं… t.co/xNPS6XjceN
Wednesday, October 16 19:45Reply
we expect isolated light #rains over parts of South #Jharkhand on October 17. However, from October 18 onward, rain… t.co/Cus3rssM8C
Wednesday, October 16 19:30Reply
The Southwest #Monsoon has withdrawn from the entire country and simultaneously #NortheastMonsoon #rains have comme… t.co/bjlLthrKSA
Wednesday, October 16 19:15Reply

latest news

Skymet weather

Download the Skymet App

Our app is available for download so give it a try