A monsoon depression may come up over Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining the Arabian Sea between 06th and 08th July. An extremely wet and a pronged spell is threatening deluge over parts of South Gujarat and Saurashtra & Kutch commencing 04th July and lasting till 09th. A slow-moving monsoon system is going to meander in the proximity of the state and has the potential to cause flooding in some parts.
A cyclonic circulation is marked over South Gujarat & North Konkan and adjoining the Arabian Sea, more prominent in the medium levels of the atmosphere. This feature is going to become more organized and shift northward closer to the Saurashtra coast. Numerical models are displaying the potential of this system to strengthen to a possible depression between 06th and 08th July. High-velocity winds accompanied with torrential rains are going to lash South Gujarat on 04th and 5th July and later shift to Saurashtra & Kutch.
The coastal stations of South Gujarat look vulnerable and Vapi, Navsari, Valsad, Surat, and Bharuch are likely to face monsoon fury, to start with. Thereafter coastal Saurashtra will be impacted with heavy rains with the possibility of localized flooding. Along the coast, Bhavnagar, Mahuva, Diu, Somnath, Viraval, Porbander, Dwarka, Okha, and Jamnagar are susceptible to the deluge. Heavy rains may travel even inland over Amreli, Junagadh, and Rajkot and central Gujarat covering Anand, Ahmedabad, Vadodara, and Gandhinagar. In the final leg, Kutch is going to be battered with very heavy rains, more intense in the western half including Naliya, Mandvi, Bhuj, and Lakhpat.
Monsoon rains so far are in excess over Saurashtra & Kutch and this spell may drive this region to large excess. On the other hand, parts of Gujarat, particularly the northern ones have not enjoyed decent monsoon rains. The current spell will marginally improve the status and the complete state of Gujarat may turn rain surplus.