The month of September has recovered from early jitters of deficient rainfall and is now limited to a single-digit shortfall of 8%. The first 10 days of the month remained perpetually dry gathering 25–30% deficiency day-on-day. This spell consumed the monsoon surplus of 110% till 31st August and narrowed it down to 106% by 12th September. Thereafter the recovery started and the season got stabilized at 107% of LPA (Long-Period Average).
After having a spate of low-pressure areas in August, it was all quiet for nearly 10 days of September. The maiden low pressure of month over the Bay of Bengal formed on 12th September and revived the monsoon activity. This was complemented by another monsoon low emerging on 20th September which has been dropping excess rains for the last 3 days, mainly over east and central parts of the country. This wet spell is likely to continue till 26th September and becomes mute during the remaining days of the month.
The month of September has a normal rainfall of 170 mm which accounts for 19% of seasonal LPA of 880.7 mm. So far (till September 21), 118.5 mm rain has been registered against normal of 128.5 mm, accruing a shortfall of 8%. About 35 mm of rainfall is expected over the next 5 days till 26th September and another 10-12 mm in the remaining 4 days. The monthly normal of 170 mm looks achievable with a margin error of +/-5%. Monsoon 2020 is likely to finish with ‘Above Normal’ rainfall assessed at 108% of LPA.