Curtains get drawn on ‘Monsoon – 2022’ today, closing the four months season from June to September. Season concludes on a brighter note achieving ‘above normal’ status (106% of LPA) and 4th successive good monsoon for the country. Most crucial and perpetual deficit regions of North and Central India pulled victory against many odds, overcoming jitters early in the season. Heterogenous region of East and Northeast India underperformed for 5th consecutive year accruing an overall deficiency of 18% rainfall. South Peninsula displayed spirited performance, repeat of 2020, with surplus of 22% rainfall. The most critical and rain dependent sub divisions of Central India like Maharashtra and Gujarat snatched beaming performance, holding cheers for farmers.
As such, the season made a poor start with jolts of sluggish monsoon progress across rice bowl of Indo-Gangetic plains, comprising West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh. Month of June shed the hopes of a shining start and amassed shortfall of 8% rainfall. However, the following month July reversed the early losses and gained significantly a whopping surplus of 117% rainfall of long period average (LPA). The 2nd core monsoon month of August also performed satisfactorily to extend the gains further with 103% of monthly rainfall. The closing month of September followed same track to end with modest total of 108% rainfall of LPA.
Monsoon 2022 continued the winning streak for the 4th consecutive year by documenting ‘above normal’ season. Earlier, 2019 & 2020 compensated loss of 2017&2018 by writing down consecutive ‘above normal’ monsoon. Monsoon 2021 got sandwiched as ‘normal’ monsoon between 2020 and 2022. Still, fete of good monsoon for 4 years in a row is a magnificent event to reckon with.
Though, Indian monsoon has been truant on so many occasions but getting 4 good monsoon in a row is not very rare. Possibly, monsoon has its own cycles : good and poor. Good monsoon for 4 years or more in a row have been witnessed 5 times in the past, since 1950. A normal monsoon(N) accounts for seasonal rainfall between 96-104% of LPA. Similarly, an above normal(AN) monsoon ranges between 105-110% rainfall of LPA. Anything more than 110% become the rare category of ‘excess’(Ex). Period 1953-1964 holds the longest record of good monsoon comprising 5-normal, 4-above normal and 3-excess seasons. Fete of 4 good monsoon in a row has been repeated thrice, since 1950.
Monsoon Performance : 1953-1964
Monsoon Performance : 1975-1978
Monsoon Performance: 1993- 1999
Monsoon Performance : 2005 -2008
Monsoon Performance: 2019 -2022
Monsoon 2022 has been the 3rd best in the last 4 years. Actually, it happens to be 3rd best in the last 25 years and 5th above normal season since then. Monsoon seems to be in ‘good cycle’ and may keep the tempo for few more years. In the preceding years between 2011 and 2020, monsoon recorded 2 droughts ( 2014,2015), 3 below normal ( 2012, 2017, 2018) and 3 normal ( 2011, 2016, 2019) and 2 above normal (2019, 2020) seasons.