Last monsoon system, well marked low pressure area, during fag end of August, dropped heavy rains over Rajasthan and Pakistan. Northward movement of the system shifted the monsoon trough close to the foothills for nearly one week and is now sliding southward gradually.
Close on the heels of this, another significant monsoon system is developing over Bay of Bengal (BoB). A cyclonic circulation is marked over East – Central BoB, extending up to mid tropospheric levels. This is expected to become more marked and shift over central parts of BoB during next 24hr.
Under its influence, low pressure area is likely to form over West-Central BoB in the subsequent 24 hours. Due to favorable environmental conditions, the weather system will have the potential to strengthen in to a depression over the same area, before crossing the coastline.
Between 08th and 11thSep, the depression is likely to move westward, traversing across South Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, North Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat. This system is likely to turn towards Rajasthan later.
Due to its recurving track, the depression will slow down and spend 2-3 days meandering over Gujarat, between 11th and 13th September. Thereafter, the weakened system as a low pressure will move from South Rajasthan to North Rajasthan and subsequently break up over Punjab, Haryana and the foothills.
The depression will power the monsoon stream afresh and revive the weather activity from East Coast to West Coast and taking it further inland to plains of North India. Heavy to very heavy rains accompanied with weather hazards like lightning, thunderstorm, gale winds are expected in a staggered manner along the track of the system. The peripherals on either side of the track, also become vulnerable for inclement weather conditions.
Flooding rains, inundating low lying area remains a possibility, particularly so when system reaches North Madhya Maharashtra, South Gujarat and Saurashtra region. Konkan region, including Mumbai will run the risk of extremely heavy rains around the weekend. Subsequently, most parts of Rajasthan first and Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and the foothills later will experience the monsoon bursts, before the southwest monsoon starts vacating the region.