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Monsoon Rainfall Deficiency Recovered, Active Conditions Likely

July 8, 2022 2:18 PM |

Southwest monsoon this season started on a dull note for many parts of the country.  First 2 weeks of June gathered deficiency of about 30%. Decent rains in the 3rd week, albeit largely over Northeast India, recovered the shortfall to reach zero-zero by 22nd June 2022. Again, a weak spell in the last week, left an overall deficiency of 8% for the month of June.

Month of July started on wet note and accumulated weekly surplus of 24% rainfall between 01stand 07thJuly. Shortfall of June got compensated and reached ‘break even’ stage on 06thJuly.  Between 01stJune and 07thJuly, country has received 222.2mm of rainfall against the normal of 221.6mm. All 7 days of July have rained more than daily normal and scored 69.9mm of rainfall against the normal of 56.3mm, excess by 13.6mm.

Unlike June, series of monsoon systems, small and big, in the form of cyclonic circulation and low pressure travelled across central parts, in the core monsoon month of July. This pattern dragged the monsoon trough to well south of its normal position, leaving Indo Gangetic plains without much of weather activity.  Uttar Pradesh is having rainfall deficiency of >50% and the eastern states of West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar reel with shortfall of 25% to 45%. However, Northwest India and Central India recovered from the large deficiencies incurred earlier in the season.

Maiden low pressure area of the season traversed across Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. It has crossed over far to the west in the Arabian Sea. Now, the monsoon trough is likely to shift northward over plains of North India. Under the combined influence of this trough and a cyclonic circulation over Punjab and Haryana, monsoon activity will accentuate over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttrakhand  on 09th and 10thJuly.

Fresh cyclonic has formed over Northwest Bay of Bengal, off Odisha and Andhra Pradesh coast. While the main system may stay put over the sea, a small vortex is likely to get jettisoned over land as closed circulation. This feature will travel westward across Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. The peripheral will extend the weather activity to North Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Active monsoon conditions are expected for the next 3-4 days over North, Centre and western parts of the country. Parts of Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka will have moderate to heavy rains at many places. However, Uttar Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand will continue to observe subdued weather activity for the next 3 days.

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