Monsoon rain may decrease in intensity in the entire country in the next 48hrs, suggests weather models at Skymet Weather. The monsoon surge looks to have weakened all across India and no fresh system seems to be approaching.
“A western disturbance will approach the hills on the 24th of this month but its effects in north India may start showing only by the 26th of June”, tells Mahesh Palawat, head of the forecasting team at Skymet weather.
In north India, the monsoon fury over Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh is over. Only 12mm of rainfall has been recorded in Dehradun from the 17th of June and there has been no rain in Shimla and Nainital. Weather will be dry till the 27th of June. Moderate rain of up to 30mm may add to monsoon woes in the already devastated state of Uttarakhand on the 28th of June.
However, Jammu and Kashmir may have rainy weather on the 26th. Rajasthan will continue to be dry, with no chances of rain. Temperature is expected to be 40⁰C. Delhi/NCR may also have a hot and dry weekend and rain/thunderstorms may occur on the 27th of June. Delhi and Haryana have received 52.4mm of excess rain so far, as opposed to normal rain of 20.4mm.
Rain has been light to very light over almost entire northeast India this season; therefore it is currently reeling under a serious rain deficit of above 60% in most places. Arunachal Pradesh is facing a deficit of up to 75%. Arunachal Pradesh received below 5mm of rain in the last 24hours whereas upper Assam received only 17mm of rain. There are chances of moderate rain at many places but it may fail to cover up the current rain deficit. There is little chance of spot rainfall. Imphal received 46mm of spot rain on the night of 20th June.
In east India, heavy rains will now decrease and become light to moderate in pockets of Odisha and West Bengal as the trough is now oscillating from the foothills of U.P and Bihar towards the south. Bhuvaneshwar recorded 70mm of rain which may reduce now and come down to 30 to 35mm. Kolkata could also receive moderate showers tomorrow and day after. West Bengal and Sikkim are currently facing a deficit of rain by about 7% and 34% respectively.
Monsoon is less active over central India as well. Madhya Pradesh will now witness only light to very light rain for the next two days, though parts of east M.P could have spot rain. Gujarat will mainly be dry. Rain may occur only in some pockets of Surat.
The interiors of south India will be dry till Sunday. Bangalore may have little or no rain. Monsoon will decrease further over the entire west coast of India. Heavy rain may occur only from the 24th of June onwards. Rayalseema and north coastal Andhra Pradesh will have scanty rain. Rain below 5mm is a chance at Chennai and Hyderabad over the weekend.
Lastly, temperatures will rise in most parts of India, both today and tomorrow due to decreased or no monsoon rain.
Photo by Ritika Acharya.