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Monsoon Rains Remain Far Away From Gujarat, Decent Showers Unlikely

September 6, 2023 1:54 PM |

Courtesy fresh low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, monsoon activity has picked up over many parts of the country.  Active monsoon conditions will extend further to central and eastern parts of the country during this week and early next week, as well.  Dismal rains for the state during August continue their woes in September also. Hardly any hope on the horizon to save the state from the humiliating performance of the monsoon during the 2nd half of the season.

Cyclone Biparjoy in June and a series of monsoon systems in July left the state rain surplus with huge margins.  At the beginning of August, Saurashtra & Kutch had an excess of 131% and Gujarat was above normal by 29% rainfall.  However, the entire month of August and even the initial days of September were a total led down. Absolute scanty rains and weak monsoons consumed the reserves of rainfall. As of 05th September, Saurashtra & Kutch has dropped to a surplus of 48% whereas Gujarat has plunged to a shortfall of - 18%, just on the brink of being deficient. The irony is, that there is hardly any hope of recovery, even when many other parts of the country are rejoicing in the revival of monsoon.

Low pressure over the Bay of Bengal will move inland tomorrow, over parts of Odisha. Further, moving westward very slowly, the system will weaken and travel to West Madhya Pradesh as a cyclonic circulation. While decent rains are expected over Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, the state of Gujarat will merely have a residual effect. South Coastal Gujarat, from Vapi, Valsad, Surat to Bharuch may have a few moderate showers between 07th and 11th September. Interiors of central and north Gujarat will have light rain for a short duration between the 10th and 11th September.  While Saurashtra may witness very light rain on the 11th and 12th of September, most parts of Kutch will remain dry during this period. In short, these little rains may not suffice to help the farmer and improve the storage of reservoirs and water bodies.

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