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Monsoon Stalemate Continues : Deadlock To Break Soon

September 7, 2022 2:07 PM |

Plains of North India and Western parts of the country have nearly dried up for the last one week.  Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and Gujarat have received scanty rains. The surplus rainfall received earlier is getting consumed and the margins have been lowered significantly. Over Punjab and Haryana, the seasonal shortfall has risen to 15%-20% during the 1st week of September.  Most parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat incurring large excess rainfall till August have slipped to the normal range now. Nothing very significant is expected over the next one week and the seasonal averages will recede further.

On the contrary, many sub-divisions over South Peninsula have received heavy rains over the last few days. Prominent states being Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. State of Kerala which suffered scanty rains earlier has reduced the deficit to mere 10%. Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have been deluged with huge surplus, more so for Karnataka, resulting flood like conditions for the capital city Bengaluru and neighboring districts of Mysore and Mandya.

The contrasting weather conditions have led to stalemate. Despite decent rains over southern and central parts, seasonal monsoon rainfall is stuck at a figure of 105% of long period average (LPA), for the last 5days, between 03rd and 07th September.  Status-quo is likely for next 2-3days. September rains in the 1st week have a shortfall of about 11%. Daily rainfall generally remained less than the stipulated normal. Overall, for the season, there is surplus of about 38mm rainfall amounting to 5% of LPA.

Cyclonic circulation has formed over Central Bay of Bengal. This will soon turn in to a low pressure area in the next 24-36hr. This weather system will power the monsoon stream after breaching the coastline on 09thSep. Intensity and spread of rains will increase over south and central parts of the country.  Rains may travel later over northern and eastern parts of the country, as well. The daily rainfall is expected to exceed the normal at least for one week, between 10th and 17thSep. Also, the daily averages will decline, as the monsoon rolls over to the 2nd week of September and later. Monsoon withdrawal can be anticipated, commencing anytime after 23ndSeptember.

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