Southwest monsoon commenced withdrawal on 25thSeptember from extreme western parts of Rajasthan. The retreat started 8 days behind schedule following requisite changes in the weather pattern. The withdrawal line passes through Nokhra, Jodhpur and Barmer and further westward. However, Jodhpur and neighbourhood witnessed rainfall within 24 hours of withdrawal. This is not commensurate with the expected conditions, immediately following withdrawal.
There are no rains likely over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Rajasthan in the next 24hours. Dry weather belt will extend and cover East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh by 29thSeptember. Even the mountainous states of North India will remain weather free, except for some higher reaches of Jammu & Kashmir. Looks like, the southwest monsoon is all set to withdraw from these parts by 30thSeptember.
State of Gujarat also will follow the suit very soon. However, formation of a low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal at the start of October and its subsequent movement may hold the retreat from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal. Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh till first week of October. In any case, the normal date of withdrawal from the eastern states as such is around 10thOctober. The low pressure area which is likely to track through these parts will find clearance by then and timely withdrawal seems to be on the cards.
Monsoon withdrawal is considered complete when the retreating line reach around 15°N, cutting across North Karnataka, Telangana, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and further on to East-Central Bay of Bengal. The withdrawal process is expected to follow the stipulated timelines this year and unlikely to get delayed, as observed on last few occasions. Southwest monsoon has to mandatorily vacate the country before arrival of Northeast Monsoon. Northeast monsoon arrived on 29th October in 2022. Otherwise, 20thOctober is considered as normal date of arrival of Northeast Monsoon.
