The intensity and frequency of Western disturbances remained significantly low in the month of February this year. The month of March commenced with a series of Western disturbances. These western disturbances were intense and have given a fair amount of rain and snow over Jammu & Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, part of Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh. Uttarakhand also witnessed on and off rain and shower activities with isolated light snowfall.
The present Western disturbance will continue to give rain and snow at many places over hilly states until March 12. The next Western disturbance will be approaching Jammu & Kashmir by March 13th. The weather activities will once again increase over hills from night of March 13 and will continue until March 14th.
This may be the last strong Western disturbance affecting Western Himalayas in the month of March. In the second half of the month, we expect few feeble Western disturbance to approach Western Himalayas, but they will not be able to give enough rain and snow.
The induced cyclonic circulations have also given rain, thunderstorm, and hailstorm over northern plains recently. The effect of ongoing Western disturbance will be felt over northern plains as well as central parts of the country. The induced cyclonic circulation which is over Haryana and adjoining areas will move in an easterly direction. A wind discontinuity will also develop across the Central part of the country. Therefore, rain and thunderstorms will be witnessed over the eastern part of Rajasthan, many parts of Madhya Pradesh, South Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi until March 12.