The month of July has been good for Delhi from the Monsoon point of view. There have already been two good episodes of rain, one of them being around July 14 and the other around July 20. In the beginning as well, there were some rainfall activities. Thus, Delhi rains in July have not only been spaced well but also good showers have been recorded keeping the heat under check.
Monthly rains for Delhi that stand at 187 mm have already exceeded since 281 mm of rains have been recorded well before the end of the month. Talking about the rain forecast for Delhi, it looks lie a rainy week for the national capital.
On and off light to moderate rains are expected to lash the national capital with one odd spell of heavy showers as well for the next few days.
The city had not seen rains as such in the past 3-4 days since Monsoon trough which is the governing factor for rains in Delhi was not in a favourable position. A low pressure area that had formed in the Bay giving heavy rains in many parts of Central India including a deluge in Maharashtra.
Now, that low pressure area has weakened and is now shifting up. Now, possibly as a weakened system will lie over West Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas. This will take the Monsoon trough northwards, thus, the western end of the Monsoon trough will be north of its normal position.
The oscillation of the Monsoon trough on either side passing through Delhi causes some rainfall activity. Since Monsoon trough is currently in its oscillation phase, rains are likely in Delhi.
The reason for the continuation of Delhi rains during the coming few days is that a low is expected to form around July 27 or 28 over North Bay. Unlike the previous system, which moved across Central India, this system will move a little northward along the Monsoon trough along the Indo Gangetic Plains.
With this system, Monsoon trough will shift southward, thus, the oscillation of the trough once again result in more rains over Delhi and the NCR region. Thus, rains are expected through the week. Rains will be moderate in nature today, tomorrow and on July 28. Thereafter, rains will reduce but continue. Rains may spill over to the initial days of August as well.
Temperatures are expected to reduce to quite an extent, going even close to 30-32 degrees Celsius. With the cloud cover and continuous rains, days are expected to become pleasant for Delhi.