Southwest Monsoon had a splendid sprint for the month of July wherein the region saw a 13 percent monthly surplus. On the other hand, the month of August has been rather disappointing with rains remaining on the backseat for most of the month.
As far as rainfall statistics are concerned, most parts are consuming their July surplus and either coming to normal levels or going below normal/deficient in many areas. Monsoon has been on the backfoot for quite some time and it doesn't seem like any good news is expected in the coming days.
In fact, we expect a reduction in Pan India rains because of weak MOnsoon akin to break Monsoon conditions. Rains will reduce in intensity and spread once again. Moreover, Northeast India will be one pocket that will see rain as it does see an increase in rains during a weak Monsoon phase.
Today, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha , West Bengal and Northeast India may see some intense showers. Tomorrow and day after tomorrow, heavy rains will only be seen over Bihar, Sikkim, Northeast India, and other parts light rains. By August 27th, foothills of Bihar will be one of the very few pockets witnessing rains.
Rains over the eastern parts will keep on shrinking and other parts will not really be seeing any significant rains. However, when weak Monsoon conditions occur, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu see some rain, similar to the situation pertaining now.
Due to lesser rains in other parts of North, Central as well as Western region of the country, there may be a situation when the pan India deficiency may even reach the double digit mark.
